The First Swell of Fall?
It’s coming together, y’all!
The Setup
source: windy.com
We have a particularly strong area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes that is expected to stall into mid-week. Several areas of low pressure are expected to ride along a frontal boundary and interact with this system to create strong fetches of east wind and resulting swell.
Let’s go ahead and look at the wind chart real quick:
While there is still some uncertainty
source: windy.com
The Waves
source: windy.com
Some of these early forecasts are pushing 10-15ft at 10+ seconds. While that seems a little exagerated, this is a solid setup. With the right low pressure system, these numbers are possible. That said, I expect them to come down a little from what we’re seeing right now.
My intuition is something in the 6ft+ at 8s+.
Now, timing is another question. Until we start to see consolidation in the forecast models, it’ll be too early to start making any reliable statements in regards to the best windows of conditions. That said, there are likely to be windows of favorable wind behind the passage of the various low pressure systems that are expected to track along the stalled cold front.
Is This Definitely Happening?
While this is a long way out (anything over 5 days is considered low probability, or at least likely to change), it’s the type of setup that tends to lead to waves. There are definitely lower probability setups, like some of the early model runs showing an east swell for now (9/15). Those model runs were counting on high pressure being further northeast and a low pressure system sending swell back after it passed and chaining wind fetch with another low to it’s south. These setups do occur, but they show up on the models way more than reality.
Could things change? Yes. That giant high staying further north than expected could ruin the whole setup. That said, when all the major models are calling the same thing day after day, it tends to be worth keeping an eye on. There’s a few other reasons that this setup is a higher probability than normal, but it’s too much to get into in this format.