Monmouth County Surf Forecast
Last Update: 09/23/2026 10:30
Link to Free Surf Cams: Beach Cams
Forecast for 9/23 - 9/27
We’re at the point of the forecast where small changes will have big impacts on the amount of swell we end up seeing. If you follow my instagram account, I put out a video on this earlier.
Essentially, we need to watch the location of the low where the recurving path occurs. Every model is calling for that recurve (pretty much), but whether it occurs further north or south will play a significant role in our local winds, as well as which days to surf.
The Euro shows a recurve south of Cape Cod, which means continued swell but cross-shore winds for Sunday. The GFS model is showing a recurve north of Cape Cod and quickly fading swell for Sunday.
Right now, Saturday PM is looking like the most reliable window with solid surf and cross-offshore winds. It’s possible (and somewhat likely) that the wind direction is more north than we’d like to see, but this setup isn’t ideal for our region. Breaks south of LBI are likely to be the best overall in terms of size and wind for Saturday. Long Island will have solid conditions with offshore wind for Friday if you want to make a road trip out of it.
Tuesday 9/22 - Friday 9/25
Onshore NE winds through Friday where we should see a North wind switch. Sideshore for our region, so no cleanup. Other areas may be worth a look though.
Swell peaks in the 10-15 ft range with strong onshores expected.
Saturday 9/26
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 85 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 99.3 | N | 32.1 | 2.8 |
| 08:00 | 85 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 99.2 | N | 32.6 | 3.5 |
| 10:00 | 85 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 99.1 | N | 32.1 | 1.9 |
| 12:00 | 85 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 91.7 | N | 31.4 | -0.4 |
| 14:00 | 85 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 79.5 | N | 30.2 | -1.3 |
| 16:00 | 34.4 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 56.6 | NNW | 28.2 | 0.4 |
| 18:00 | 15 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 36 | NNW | 27.2 | 2.3 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 86.7 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14:00 | 94.6 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 351.4 | 2.4 | 3.5 |
| 20:00 | 96.4 | 3.3 | 11 | 10.4 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 68.7 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14:00 | 71.3 | 7 | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20:00 | 79.4 | 4.1 | 11 | 25.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 01:14 | L | 0.11 |
| 07:26 | H | 5.23 |
| 13:39 | L | 0.25 |
| 19:43 | H | 5.2 |
Less swell as you go north, more as you go towards LBI. Wind should get more cross-offshore vs. cross-shore as the day goes on. Currently, the PM session likely has the best overall conditions, but swell fades as the day goes on.
I’m not too sure about the combined numbers vs. the swell breakdown numbers. I’d expect that to move around a bit depending on the ultimate storm track. That said, this is definitely a window to watch.
Notes: Big tide swing and challenging conditions. Not for beginners.
Best board: HPSB or step-up
Sunday 9/27
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 26.5 | NNW | 28.8 | 1.7 |
| 08:00 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 26.3 | N | 27.4 | 3 |
| 10:00 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 23.1 | N | 24.5 | 1.7 |
| 12:00 | 5 | 6.6 | 6 | 17.3 | N | 22.3 | -0.8 |
| 14:00 | 5 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 12.4 | N | 20.3 | -2.2 |
| 16:00 | 264.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 0.1 | N | 18 | -1.1 |
| 18:00 | 355 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | N | 17 | 0.9 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 98.3 | 1.7 | 10 | 340 | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| 14:00 | 99.2 | 1.4 | 9.6 | 342.8 | 1.8 | 3.4 |
| 20:00 | 103.1 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 342.1 | 1.3 | 3.2 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 80.9 | 2.3 | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 332.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| 14:00 | 81.9 | 1.9 | 9.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 2 | 4.3 |
| 20:00 | 86 | 1.6 | 9.4 | 242 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 353.1 | 1.6 | 3.8 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 01:54 | L | 0.01 |
| 08:02 | H | 5.46 |
| 14:25 | L | 0.13 |
| 20:23 | H | 5.13 |
Plenty of uncertainty at this time due to differences in model outputs regarding the storm track. Trust the buoy numbers if the GFS is right and the combined numbers if the ECMWF is correct.
If there’s a lot of swell, expect north winds and poor conditions on Sunday.
Monday 9/28
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 5 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 0.4 | N | 15 | 0.9 |
| 08:00 | 5 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 0.3 | NNW | 13.9 | 2.7 |
| 10:00 | 5 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 0.2 | NNW | 13.3 | 2.2 |
| 12:00 | 5 | 2.7 | 8.9 | 13.4 | NNW | 11.3 | -0.1 |
| 14:00 | 264.7 | 2.4 | 8.8 | 0.2 | N | 8.9 | -1.9 |
| 16:00 | 85 | 2.1 | 8.7 | 33.4 | N | 7.5 | -1.9 |
| 18:00 | 85 | 2 | 8.6 | 28.4 | NNW | 7 | 0.2 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 02:33 | L | -0.02 |
| 08:40 | H | 5.59 |
| 15:10 | L | 0.09 |
| 21:05 | H | 4.96 |
Possible leftovers depending on the storm track. Disregard the numbers for now. If Sunday is blown out, watch Monday and vice versa.
Looking Ahead
Watching for a possible south swell around 10/1.
Overall, things are looking way more exciting than what we’ve seen over the past few months. The North Pacific seems to be coming online and that means way more swell events.
The Tropics
Low chance over the next three weeks with potential formation in the Gulf the week of 9/30. Less than 40% chance though.
All data sourced from NOAA NWPS and GFS Wave
Current list of Surf Hazards Surf Hazards
Why Energy Percentile? Energy Article
Helpful Links
Buoys
NOAA New York Harbor Entrance Buoy