wave picture

Last Update: 3/19/2026 08:30

Link to Free Surf Cams: Beach Cams

New Feature: Water Level

Week of 3/15 - 3/22

See my Mid-March Update Here

A more powerful swell is expected next Monday 3/16 with leftovers lasting into Wednesday or Thursday. Watching the weekend for another small, steep-south swell.

We could see something early next week (Monday) as well, but models have been mixed on that. There’s a chance for a more powerful swell late next week with the major atmospheric models in something resembling agreement.

Thursday 3/19

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 145 3.4 9 55.5 SE 4 0.5
08:00 145 3.4 8.9 54 SE 5 2
10:00 142.4 3.3 8.9 53.2 SE 5.4 0.8
12:00 134.9 3.2 8.8 53 SSE 6 -1.6
14:00 134.9 3.1 8.7 50.3 SSE 7.3 -3
16:00 135 3 8.6 47.4 S 8 -1.9
18:00 135 2.9 8.5 44.9 S 8.1 0.6
Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 141.5 3.1 8.8 0 0 0
14:00 139.7 2.9 8.6 0 0 0
20:00 137.2 2.6 8.5 181.3 1.6 3.1
Time Tide Height (ft)
02:03 L -0.47
08:07 H 4.87
14:19 L -0.62
20:25 H 5.1

Models are still in a different (and better) reality. Maybe it’s warm there?

This actually would’ve worked out if the tide wasn’t a worst case scenario for us. The AM high tide is too much for it, but the shape actually looks decent.

Again, we have way less swell than model predictions are showing. 2ft@9s on the buoy, occasional 2ft@10s.

Notes: Stay warm and watch the weekend.

Friday 3/20

Some south windswell is expected end of day. Not surfable, but it sets up some surf for Saturday AM.

Saturday 3/21

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 167.5 4.6 6.7 31.5 SW 11.4 -0.9
08:00 165 4.3 6.8 31.4 WSW 9 1.2
10:00 164.9 4.1 6.9 30.1 WNW 7.6 1.7
12:00 182.4 3.9 6.9 20 WNW 7.6 -0.2
14:00 185 3.7 6.8 16.8 WNW 7 -2.1
16:00 185 3.5 7.9 25.9 WSW 7.1 -2.7
18:00 185 3.4 8 24.3 SW 9 -0.8
Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 Angle 3 Swell 3 Period 3 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 163.9 4.5 6.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 322.5 0.8 2
14:00 171.8 3 6.5 116.3 1.9 8.5 344.1 0.8 2.6 0 0 0
20:00 171.8 2.2 6.2 118.4 1.9 8.4 0 0 0 0 0 0
Time Tide Height (ft)
03:34 L -0.6
09:35 H 4.62
15:40 L -0.57
21:53 H 5.23

It looks like the vast majority of our SE-E swell will be gone by Saturday AM, however, a weak low pressure system passes by our region and generates some short period SE/SSE wind swell. Certainly nothing firing, but it should be fun on a groveler or longboard.

We have a fairly well timed low tide for the dawn patrol session and light offshore winds to start the day. Wind stays offshore all day, but I’d expect the surf to fade fast. No sleeping in, unfortunately.

Breaking wave heights should be in the stomach high range give or take. Expect the waves to be pretty soft given the short period.

Notes: Large tide swing limits the available windows to surf. The AM session is the only one worth considering. Seasonally warm weather expected.

Best board: Groveler/Longboard. Longboard for the afternoon.

Sunday 3/22

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 185 2.7 8.1 17.5 SW 8.2 -1.5
08:00 185 2.7 8.1 16.5 SSW 8 0.7
10:00 185 2.6 8.1 15.7 SSW 7.4 2
12:00 134.4 2.6 8.1 33.6 SSW 9 0.8
14:00 104.9 2.7 8 38.4 S 10 -1.1
16:00 104.9 2.9 8 41.6 S 11.8 -2.3
18:00 105 3 8 43.4 S 11.9 -1.5
Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 119.2 1.7 8.1 0 0 0 159.6 1.9 5.5
14:00 122.2 1.6 8 101.7 1.6 5.7 179.2 1.4 5.4
20:00 114 2 7.9 187.2 0.6 5 176.1 1.6 3.7
Time Tide Height (ft)
04:21 L -0.47
10:26 H 4.38
16:22 L -0.4
22:45 H 5.11

Low expectations for rideable waves on anything but a longboard.

Notes: Possibly flat, definitely small. Warm weather though.

Looking Ahead

Monday 3/23

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 145 4.2 6.4 31.6 NNW 18.4 -2.1
08:00 157.6 4.5 6.8 36.3 NNE 19.2 -0.3
10:00 165 5.1 7.1 43.2 NNE 19.3 1.2
12:00 175 5.2 7.2 40.8 N 18 0.8
14:00 145 4.9 7.3 53 N 16.5 -0.9
16:00 145 4.6 7.4 50.7 N 16 -2.1
18:00 145 4.4 7.5 49.1 N 16 -2.7
Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 0 0 0 180 5.8 6.1
14:00 167.6 4.8 7 278.3 4 4.4
20:00 160.9 3.1 7.4 316.9 5.3 5.2
Time Tide Height (ft)
05:11 L -0.22
11:23 H 4.14
17:09 L -0.12
23:44 H 4.92

I’d keep an eye on this one. Another steep angled wind swell, but possibly larger than we see on Saturday. Wind is expected to turn hard offshore following the passage of that low pressure system which may be an issue. Too early to call.

Notes: There’s some uncertainty for this one with the GFS model being significantly more bullish than the Euro. Check back later. I’d expect the numbers to move around a little.

Mid-Week

High pressure moves in and prevents any new swell until Thursday 3/26 at the earliest. It’s possible we could see a stronger swell late week from a larger low pressure system that is expected to take an inland track, but that is close enough to our region to generate some south swell.

All data sourced from NOAA NWPS and GFS Wave

Current list of Surf Hazards Surf Hazards

Why Energy Percentile? Energy Article

NOAA Atlantic Analysis

Buoys

NOAA New York Harbor Entrance Buoy

Barnegat NJ Buoy

Hurricane Analysis

NHS 7 Day Outlook

NHS Tropical Hazards Outlook

Teleconnections

NAO

ENSO Diagnostic Discussion