Monmouth County Surf Forecast
Last Update: 10/17/2026 12:30
Link to Free Surf Cams: Beach Cams
Forecast for 10/17 - 10/23
A Nor’easter is forming along a strong frontal boundary as a strong region of high pressure moves into our area. Regardless of the hype, this definitely isn’t the type of setup we want to see for our region. Large surf and strong northeast winds means beach erosion, coastal flooding, and poor surf conditions. Similar to what we saw ~9/26, blocking high pressure means this sticks around for a while. It’s possible we don’t see actual offshore wind until around Halloween.
For the upside, Cape May and New York are likely to see decent conditions from this (like last time).
Swell starts arriving later on Sunday and continues through the week with sea heights peaking (on the buoy) around 10ft for NY Harbor and around 14ft for Barnegat Light.
Poor conditions are expected for Monmouth County for effectively the entirety of the swell. It’s possible Sunday evening and Monday morning could be doable at the right spot before the worst of the wind begins. Low expectations for quality though.
Saturday 10/17
Flat
Sunday 10/18
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 67.7 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 47.1 | NNE | 21.4 | -1 |
| 08:00 | 75 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 53.5 | NE | 19.6 | -1 |
| 10:00 | 75 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 54.8 | NE | 18.6 | 0.2 |
| 12:00 | 75 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 53.1 | NE | 15.7 | 1.2 |
| 14:00 | 75 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 52.8 | NE | 11.7 | 1.1 |
| 16:00 | 75 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 53.6 | NE | 10.7 | 0.3 |
| 18:00 | 85 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 59.1 | NE | 10.6 | -0.5 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 169.3 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 62.9 | 3.8 | 6.6 |
| 14:00 | 93.9 | 1.4 | 7.8 | 71.1 | 2.9 | 5.9 |
| 20:00 | 101.5 | 1.1 | 8.6 | 87 | 2.9 | 6.4 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 57.1 | 5.8 | 7 |
| 14:00 | 87.6 | 1.8 | 8.6 | 65.7 | 5.1 | 7.6 |
| 20:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75.7 | 4.8 | 7.3 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 01:15 | H | 3.65 |
| 06:43 | L | 1.62 |
| 13:27 | H | 4.27 |
| 19:56 | L | 1.28 |
Pretty significant differences in the different outputs here. Basically, all of the swell is headed southwest towards North Carolina. We’re picking up what refracts towards us from that swell angle. Monmouth is right at the top of that band of swell on Sunday afternoon/evening.
While the rest of the week is showing serious swell numbers, don’t expect Sunday to have similar buoy readings (or at least NY Harbor).
Wind is pretty bad, but it’s the best it’s going to get until next weekend give or take.
While it’s tough to call a swell like this, I’d guess we see stomach-shoulder high surf for Monmouth County with poor but doable for a desperate east coast surfer conditions. Wind gets lighter as you go north and swell gets smaller.
Notes: Nothing great, but I know you’re as desperate as I am.
Best board: Something that handles choppy waves.
Monday 10/19
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 95 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 84.9 | NE | 16.8 | -0.4 |
| 08:00 | 105 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 89.3 | NE | 17.3 | -0.7 |
| 10:00 | 105 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 91.9 | NE | 17.8 | -0.1 |
| 12:00 | 105 | 8 | 9.6 | 94.5 | NE | 17.5 | 1.1 |
| 14:00 | 105 | 8.5 | 10 | 96.3 | NE | 16.8 | 1.8 |
| 16:00 | 105 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 97.3 | NNE | 16 | 1.5 |
| 18:00 | 105 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 98.1 | NNE | 16 | 0.6 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 94.6 | 6.2 | 9.1 |
| 14:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.2 | 7.9 | 10.5 |
| 20:00 | 98.2 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 84.9 | 8.3 | 9 |
| 14:00 | 85.7 | 10.5 | 11.3 |
| 20:00 | 82.6 | 11.8 | 11.7 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 02:07 | H | 3.69 |
| 08:00 | L | 1.64 |
| 14:19 | H | 4.25 |
| 20:56 | L | 1.15 |
Big swell and poor wind. It’s possible but fairly unlikely that the early AM window could show slightly less wind.
Extremely low expectations, but worth a look.
Notes: Looooowwww expectations
Best board: If it comes together, something that handles steep surf and chop.
Mid-Week
Huge, completely blown out surf
Swell peaks around 11ft at 11 seconds for north NJ. Serious numbers. Lots of erosion expected.
Wind is expected to remain northeast throught the entirety of the work week.
Thursday/Friday could be worth a watch.
The Weekend
Worth watching, but too uncertain at this time.
The Tropics
All is quiet as of 10/17. No tropical storms are expected in the next few weeks according to the 10/13 CPC Tropical Hazards Outlook.
All data sourced from NOAA NWPS and GFS Wave
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Helpful Links
Buoys
NOAA New York Harbor Entrance Buoy