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Last Update: 7/18/2026 13:00

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Summer Forecast Note

As we get into summer, this page will be updated less. I primarily mean for this page to track swells as they arrive and that’s not something that happens that much this time of year. As surfers, we all know that July-mid August is the slowest time of year for surf. The waves we do see tend to be more similar to trade swell than actual swell events. For this type of setup, wave heights are pretty unimportant and will be too affected by local bathymetry. In general, if the waves are under waist high, I won’t be attaching the tabular data associated.

I’ll still be updating this page with days that are worth a look, but I’ll go ahead and give the NOAA servers a rest until something of interest pops up.

Forecast for 7/15 - 7/20

Flat through Saturday.

Sunday and (maybe) Monday look fun! Watch the middle of next week for actual swell.

See my recent blog post about mid-July here

Saturday 7/18

New south swell starts to show. Strong south wind through the afternoon and evening hours. Not a day for surf.

Sunday 7/19

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 185 3.3 6.2 8.4 W 10.9 -2.8
08:00 185 3.1 6.2 7 NW 11 -1.1
10:00 185 3.1 6.2 6.9 NNW 11.7 0.9
12:00 185 3.2 6.4 8.7 NNW 10.1 1.5
14:00 185 3.2 6.6 10.8 NNW 7.8 0.4
16:00 185 3.2 6.7 11.1 N 6.1 -1
18:00 185 3.1 6.7 10.4 NNW 5 -1.9

Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 185.2 2.7 5.9 130.8 0.4 12.8 309.4 2.5 3.7
14:00 178.2 2.2 6.2 130.7 0.4 12.7 319 1.7 3.4
20:00 175.3 2.3 6.7 130.8 0.4 12.6 339.4 1.7 3.3

Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 Angle 3 Swell 3 Period 3 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 188.4 3 5.9 114.6 0.5 12.8 0 0 0 305.6 2 3.3
14:00 177.5 2.6 6.4 114.8 0.5 12.7 0 0 0 359.7 2.3 4.2
20:00 176 2.6 6.8 3.2 1.7 3.8 114.6 0.5 12.6 0 0 0
Time Tide Height (ft)
05:40 L 0.01
12:13 H 4.96
18:02 L 0.68

This is the main day to watch over the weekend. Steep south swell angle means a bit less push than the numbers would indicate. There’s still some uncertainy, but I’d plan on taking a look.

This swell angle should play well with our sandbars. Expect soft right handers in the waist+ range.

Wind is expected to be offshore following the frontal passage. Depending on the strength of the wind, swell may drop faster than model predictions.

Notes: Looks fun!

Best board: Longboard or groveler.

Monday 7/20

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 185 2.5 6.7 6.2 NNE 6.8 -2.2
08:00 185 2.5 6.6 5.6 NNE 6 -1.5
10:00 185 2.4 6.5 5.1 NE 5.9 0.3
12:00 182.2 2.3 6.5 4.8 ENE 4 1.4
14:00 175 2.2 6.5 5.3 ESE 4 1.1
16:00 175 2.1 6.6 4.7 SE 6.6 -0.1
18:00 175 2 6.6 4.1 SSE 8.6 -1.5

Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 Angle 3 Swell 3 Period 3 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 173.7 1.9 6.7 130.4 0.4 12.3 0 0 0 27.9 1 2.9
14:00 171.3 1.7 6.5 63.2 0.6 2.9 129.8 0.4 11.9 0 0 0
20:00 69.4 0.5 3.5 130 0.4 11.9 0 0 0 165.1 1.8 6.7

Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 Angle 3 Swell 3 Period 3 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 172.4 2 6.5 114.8 0.4 12.3 0 0 0 11.7 1.1 3.2
14:00 169.4 1.7 6.5 32.2 0.8 3.2 113.8 0.4 12 48.2 0.8 3.1
20:00 50.7 0.5 3.4 113.8 0.4 11.9 0 0 0 167.2 1.9 6.6
Time Tide Height (ft)
00:22 H 4.62
06:27 L 0.33
13:02 H 4.88
19:00 L 0.93

Swell could drop faster than expected but model outputs are still showing swell for Monday.

If this is accurate, waist high waves or so. Wind isn’t ideal, but it could be worse.

Notes: Bring a big board.

Best board: Longboard or groveler.

Tuesday

No surf and strong south wind.

Wednesday 7/22

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 175 5.8 7.1 44.8 SW 17.7 -1.1
08:00 175 5.9 7.4 50.2 SW 17 -1.6
10:00 175 6.1 7.7 55.3 SW 16.7 -1.2
12:00 175 6.3 7.9 59.2 SW 16.7 0.3
14:00 175 6.5 8 63.1 SSW 16.5 1.6
16:00 175 6.7 8.1 65.6 SSW 15.5 1.2
18:00 175 6.4 8.2 64 SSW 13.7 -0.1
Time Tide Height (ft)
02:00 H 4.01
08:08 L 0.85
14:36 H 4.7
21:02 L 1.12

Wind could be an issue, but this is a day to watch closely. Check back later.

Thursday 7/23

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 175 4.2 7.8 37.6 NW 10.5 -0.5
08:00 175 4.1 7.7 34.8 NW 10 -1.5
10:00 175 4 7.7 35.1 NW 9.5 -1.7
12:00 175 4 7.8 34.8 NW 7.6 -0.3
14:00 175 3.9 7.7 32.7 WSW 5.3 1.1
16:00 175 3.7 7.5 29.3 SSW 5.5 1.4
18:00 175 3.6 7.4 26 S 5.9 0.5
Time Tide Height (ft)
02:51 H 3.79
09:01 L 0.99
15:26 H 4.65
21:58 L 1.06

Looks really fun! As of right now, Thursday is the best day of the week.

Tropics

Tropics were expected to remain quiet, but now there’s a few regions of interest on the NHS tropical outlook that are worth watching. The tropical wave off Africa isn’t expected to be of that much interest, but the one in the gulf could end up becoming a factor into early next week.

All data sourced from NOAA NWPS and GFS Wave

Current list of Surf Hazards Surf Hazards

Why Energy Percentile? Energy Article

NOAA Atlantic Analysis

Buoys

NOAA New York Harbor Entrance Buoy

Barnegat NJ Buoy

Hurricane Analysis

NHS 7 Day Outlook

NHS Tropical Hazards Outlook

Teleconnections

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ENSO Diagnostic Discussion