Monmouth County Surf Forecast
Last Update: 7/06/2026 15:30
Link to Free Surf Cams: Beach Cams
Summer Forecast Note
As we get into summer, this page will be updated less. I primarily mean for this page to track swells as they arrive and that’s not something that happens that much this time of year. As surfers, we all know that July-mid August is the slowest time of year for surf. The waves we do see tend to be more similar to trade swell than actual swell events. For this type of setup, wave heights are pretty unimportant and will be too affected by local bathymetry. In general, if the waves are under waist high, I won’t be attaching the tabular data associated.
I’ll still be updating this page with days that are worth a look, but I’ll go ahead and give the NOAA servers a rest until something of interest pops up.
Forecast for the Week of 7/4 - 7/10
We have a much more active week surf wise than we have in a while. Model runs have been incredibly inconsistent and we’re really playing with the northmost portion of our swell window. If we see a quick exit to this low pressure system, it probably tracks too northeast and that really limits the surf we could see. That worst case scenario (that the ICON was showing for a while) seems to be less and less likely, but there’s still a large amount of uncertainty at this time.
Little changes in the forecast will have significant effects on the amount of surf we end up seeing, so keep that in mind as we get into the beginning of the week.
7/6 Update: Buoy heights are outperforming model outputs by a couple of feet. I’m expecting better wave heights than the tables below suggest.
Monday 7/6
This table is useless
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | 95 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | E | 14.6 | -0.4 |
| 11:00 | 105 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 6.5 | ESE | 14.4 | 1.2 |
| 13:00 | 105 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | ESE | 12.9 | 1.6 |
| 15:00 | 109.9 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 4.8 | ESE | 12 | 0.6 |
| 17:00 | 85 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | E | 11.5 | -0.9 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 05:54 | L | 0.42 |
| 12:27 | H | 4.49 |
| 18:21 | L | 1.08 |
I’ll just reiterate that models are struggling on this one
Buoys are closer to 5ft@6s right now. Unfortunately, we’re flying blind going into the next few days. Not terribly uncommon with east swells though.
Notes: Bad weather. Buoy heights considerably larger than what’s listed above.
Best board: N/A
Tuesday 7/7
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 75 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 29 | NE | 10.1 | -1.3 |
| 08:00 | 75 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 26.5 | NNE | 12.7 | -1.5 |
| 10:00 | 85 | 4 | 6.3 | 31.4 | NNE | 12.6 | -0 |
| 12:00 | 75 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 32.1 | NNE | 13 | 1.5 |
| 14:00 | 75 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 31 | NNE | 12.5 | 2 |
| 16:00 | 75 | 4 | 6.1 | 28.6 | NNE | 12.4 | 0.8 |
| 18:00 | 75 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 27 | NNE | 12.4 | -0.8 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 00:36 | H | 4.39 |
| 06:40 | L | 0.47 |
| 13:15 | H | 4.71 |
| 19:31 | L | 1.07 |
North to northeast wind to start the day. Not ideal, but given how incorrect the model outputs are, it’s worth checking in the AM. Wind remains poor all day.
Notes: Watch your local wind forecast. Check in the AM and again late day. Low expectations for quality.
Best board: groveler or swim fins
Wednesday 7/8
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 75 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 29.2 | NNE | 13 | -1 |
| 08:00 | 75 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 28.4 | NNE | 12 | -2 |
| 10:00 | 75 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 28.5 | N | 9.4 | -1 |
| 12:00 | 75 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 29.6 | NNE | 8.4 | 0.7 |
| 14:00 | 75 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 31.2 | NE | 5.3 | 2 |
| 16:00 | 75 | 3.5 | 7 | 33.9 | ESE | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 18:00 | 75 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 34.8 | SSE | 6 | -0.1 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | H | 4.27 |
| 07:37 | L | 0.48 |
| 14:06 | H | 4.94 |
| 20:45 | L | 0.94 |
East swell could continue with north wind expected. Lighter wind for the afternoon. Late day Wednesday may end up being the best window of conditions, all things considered.
Notes: Low confidence in this at this time.
Best board: TBD
Thursday 7/9
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 85 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 27 | SW | 7.1 | -0.4 |
| 08:00 | 85 | 2.7 | 7.1 | 25.5 | SW | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 10:00 | 75.2 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 22.5 | SSW | 6.9 | -1.9 |
| 12:00 | 75 | 2.5 | 7 | 21.1 | SSW | 9.9 | -0.1 |
| 14:00 | 75 | 2.6 | 7 | 20.9 | S | 13.6 | 1.7 |
| 16:00 | 75 | 3 | 6.9 | 25.9 | S | 14.8 | 2.1 |
| 18:00 | 175 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 16.5 | SSW | 13.9 | 0.8 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 02:28 | H | 4.16 |
| 08:40 | L | 0.44 |
| 15:04 | H | 5.14 |
| 21:52 | L | 0.7 |
Thursday AM could be fun. The only chance at offshores (side-offshore more likely). Light wind expected with leftover waves.
Notes: Uncertainty and whatnot.
Friday 7/10
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 175 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 8.9 | WSW | 7 | 0.3 |
| 08:00 | 175 | 2.4 | 6.8 | 8.2 | WSW | 6.6 | -1.2 |
| 10:00 | 175 | 2.3 | 6.8 | 7.3 | WSW | 5.9 | -2.3 |
| 12:00 | 175 | 2.2 | 6.8 | 6.7 | SW | 6.9 | -1.3 |
| 14:00 | 175 | 2.3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | SSW | 8.3 | 1.1 |
| 16:00 | 175 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 7.8 | SW | 8.1 | 2.4 |
| 18:00 | 175 | 2.7 | 6.6 | 9.5 | WSW | 8 | 1.7 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 03:34 | H | 4.11 |
| 09:43 | L | 0.34 |
| 16:09 | H | 5.35 |
| 22:54 | L | 0.41 |
Maybe some longboard waves. Too much uncertainty.
Looking Ahead
Models are struggling with this time period, but we could see another fun swell next weekend. Obviously, it’s far out and it’s way too early to be looking at specifics, especially with the inability to call even early this week.
All data sourced from NOAA NWPS and GFS Wave
Current list of Surf Hazards Surf Hazards
Why Energy Percentile? Energy Article
Helpful Links
Buoys
NOAA New York Harbor Entrance Buoy