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Last Update: 09/19/2026 15:00

Link to Free Surf Cams: Beach Cams

Forecast for 9/20 - 9/27

Onshore wind and possibly 15+ ft seas. Solid swell, but will the wind cooperate?

As of right now, the model outputs aren’t looking great. There’s still plenty of uncertainty for late week when things could start to come together. I’m confident in saying we’ll get a window of fun conditions, but whether it occurs when wave heights are still in the overhead range is yet to be seen (and looks unlikely).

Realistically, I think Long Island (NY) and Hatteras will end up seeing the best actual conditions from this swell. Cape May will probably end up looking decent as well.

Saturday 9/19

Onshore wind for poor conditions

Sunday 9/20

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 95 2.7 6 14.8 SE 10 -0.5
08:00 95 2.7 7.3 29 SE 11 -0.9
10:00 135 2.8 7.4 29.3 SSE 12.5 -0.6
12:00 134.9 3 7.5 32.9 SSE 14 0.6
14:00 135 3.2 7.5 36.5 S 15.4 1.4
16:00 135 3.4 4.2 3.8 S 15.1 1.5
18:00 135 3.4 4.4 4.9 S 14 0.7

Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 121.1 1.1 7.4 129.9 0.5 11.1 122.3 2.3 4.4
14:00 125.8 1.3 7.4 130.9 0.5 10.9 153.2 2.8 4
20:00 126.4 1.4 7.3 130.4 0.5 10.8 172.9 3.3 4.4

Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 Angle 3 Swell 3 Period 3 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 126.2 1.1 8.3 95.3 0.6 7.5 116.2 0.6 11.1 107.2 2.6 5.8
14:00 117.3 1.6 7.4 88 1.4 5 115.4 0.6 10.9 166.8 2.3 3.8
20:00 111.6 2.1 7.3 111 0.5 10.9 0 0 0 175.1 2.6 4
Time Tide Height (ft)
02:41 H 3.66
08:43 L 1.58
15:03 H 4.36
21:41 L 1.23

Not looking too great with the side-onshore wind and weak swell. There will be something out there, but I’d have low expectations for quality.

Monday 9/21

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 135 3.2 7.5 36.1 N 17 0.2
08:00 15 3.7 3.8 0.4 NNE 17 -0.6
10:00 7.7 4 4.3 0.7 NNE 17.1 -0.8
12:00 43.9 4.1 4.5 5.2 NNE 16.9 -0
14:00 65 4.2 5 12.3 NE 15.9 1.2
16:00 75 4 5.3 17.2 NE 13.9 1.9
18:00 85 4 5.9 26.2 NE 13.2 1.4

Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 130.9 2.1 7.7 194.9 0.8 4.3 31.8 3.1 4
14:00 134 1.7 7.3 199.8 0.3 4 69.7 3.4 5
20:00 0 0 0 0 0 0 90.8 4.6 6

Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 124.3 2.4 7.5 200.3 0.8 4.1 29.4 3.3 4.2
14:00 131.9 1.8 8 109 0.4 10.6 57.5 4.4 5.3
20:00 0 0 0 0 0 0 77.8 5.5 6.2
Time Tide Height (ft)
03:40 H 3.75
09:44 L 1.43
16:01 H 4.45
22:30 L 0.99

Worth a look in the early AM, but again, wind.

Tuesday 9/22 - Friday 9/25

9/24 Chart

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 105 13.5 10.7 99.5 NE 29.3 3.1
08:00 105 13.7 10.8 99.6 NE 29 2.6
10:00 105 13.9 10.9 99.6 NE 29.7 0.9
12:00 105 13.9 11 99.6 NE 29.9 -0.2
14:00 105 13.8 11.1 99.7 NE 30.8 0.3
16:00 105 13.5 11.2 99.6 NE 29.8 2.1
18:00 95 13.2 11.3 99.6 NE 29.6 3.3

Swell peaks in the 10-15 ft range with strong onshores expected. Not looking surfable for NJ, but NY may end up seeing improving conditions for Saturday.

Saturday 9/26

Wind shifts out of the north if the forecasts hold. Some models are still showing continuing NE winds.

Worth a watch, either here or maybe NY.

Notes: Some uncertainty for this time, but forecasts have trended worse for our region

Sunday 9/27

This is the first day worth watching for NJ if the models are to be believed. Wind won’t be perfect, but it looks doable.

Sunday 9/20

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 85 2.9 6.9 26.4 SE 11 -0.4
08:00 95 2.9 7.1 29.5 SSE 12 -0.9
10:00 102.4 2.9 7.2 31.4 SSE 12.9 -0.7
12:00 134.9 3 4.7 5 SSE 13 0.5
14:00 135 3.1 4.8 6.4 S 13.2 1.4
16:00 135 3.2 5.1 9.3 SSE 12.2 1.5
18:00 135 3.3 5.3 11 SSE 12 0.6

Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 0 0 0 0 0 0 123.6 3.1 4
14:00 119.3 1 7.2 128.7 0.6 10.8 173.2 4.4 4.8
20:00 127.9 0.5 10.7 0 0 0 186.3 6 5.8

Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 92.8 2.5 6.9 116.5 0.6 10.9 149.7 2 3.7
14:00 107 1.3 7 115.9 0.6 10.8 165.7 4 4.6
20:00 114 0.6 10.8 0 0 0 179.7 5.5 5.5
Time Tide Height (ft)
02:41 H 3.66
08:43 L 1.58
15:03 H 4.36
21:41 L 1.23

Wind and whatnot. Expect this to change a little as we get closer.

Notes: check back later

Monday 9/21

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 145 3.5 5.3 11.5 NE 14.4 0.2
08:00 72.2 3.6 5 10.6 NE 14.9 -0.6
10:00 85 3.9 5.3 18.1 NE 15 -0.7
12:00 85 4.3 5.8 28 NE 15 0.1
14:00 85 4.6 6.1 35.3 ENE 14.2 1.3
16:00 85 4.7 6.4 41.1 ENE 15.1 2
18:00 85 4.8 6.5 44.3 ENE 15.6 1.4

Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 Angle 3 Swell 3 Period 3 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 161.3 2.4 5.7 126.6 0.5 10.6 0 0 0 41.4 3.4 4.5
14:00 164 1.2 5.4 143.5 0.7 8.4 113.2 0.5 8.1 68.9 3.2 5.2
20:00 142.6 0.7 8.1 124.9 0.4 10.4 0 0 0 85.7 3.6 5.3

Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy

Time Angle 1 Swell 1 Period 1 Angle 2 Swell 2 Period 2 Angle 3 Swell 3 Period 3 WW Angle Wind Wave WW Period
08:00 162.6 2 5.4 119.5 0.9 8.6 117.1 0.5 10.6 38.5 4 4.8
14:00 160 1.1 5.8 137.8 0.8 8.8 114.9 0.6 10.4 58 4.2 5.5
20:00 143.2 0.7 7.8 118.4 0.5 10.4 0 0 0 73 4.7 5.9
Time Tide Height (ft)
03:40 H 3.75
09:44 L 1.43
16:01 H 4.45
22:30 L 0.99

Not loving the wind forecast, but there could be a window of favorable conditions depending on what happens with a small low over our region.

Notes: Trended up a little over the past few days.

Best board: longboard or groveler

Looking Ahead

Early week looks to be blown out with 15kts+ onshore winds. The “day” at this point is still up in the air and will likely be a moving target as we get into early next week, but currently, 9/24 is favored by the GFS model. Lots of variation at the moment.

The Tropics

The largest chance we have for a TS is likely next week. Still fairly low probability, but models are starting to pick up the chance of cyclone formation.

All data sourced from NOAA NWPS and GFS Wave

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