Monmouth County Surf Forecast
Last Update: 7/08/2026 13:00
Link to Free Surf Cams: Beach Cams
Summer Forecast Note
As we get into summer, this page will be updated less. I primarily mean for this page to track swells as they arrive and that’s not something that happens that much this time of year. As surfers, we all know that July-mid August is the slowest time of year for surf. The waves we do see tend to be more similar to trade swell than actual swell events. For this type of setup, wave heights are pretty unimportant and will be too affected by local bathymetry. In general, if the waves are under waist high, I won’t be attaching the tabular data associated.
I’ll still be updating this page with days that are worth a look, but I’ll go ahead and give the NOAA servers a rest until something of interest pops up.
Forecast for the Week of 7/4 - 7/10
We have a much more active week surf wise than we have in a while. Model runs have been incredibly inconsistent and we’re really playing with the northmost portion of our swell window. If we see a quick exit to this low pressure system, it probably tracks too northeast and that really limits the surf we could see. That worst case scenario (that the ICON was showing for a while) seems to be less and less likely, but there’s still a large amount of uncertainty at this time.
Little changes in the forecast will have significant effects on the amount of surf we end up seeing, so keep that in mind as we get into the beginning of the week.
7/6 Update: Buoy heights are outperforming model outputs by a couple of feet. I’m expecting better wave heights than the tables below suggest.
Wednesday 7/8
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | 65 | 3.2 | 6 | 16 | N | 6 | -1.9 |
| 11:00 | 65 | 3 | 6.1 | 15.5 | NNE | 5 | -0.3 |
| 13:00 | 75 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 18.2 | NE | 4 | 1.4 |
| 15:00 | 75 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 20 | SSE | 5.1 | 1.9 |
| 17:00 | 85 | 2.8 | 6.7 | 21.8 | S | 8.2 | 0.8 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 71 | 2.6 | 6 | 135.1 | 0.8 | 9.4 | 179.1 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14:00 | 85.1 | 2 | 6.6 | 136.7 | 0.8 | 9.5 | 173.6 | 0.8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20:00 | 88 | 1.9 | 6.8 | 138.5 | 0.9 | 9.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190.7 | 2 | 3.1 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 124.6 | 1 | 9.4 | 174.4 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53.8 | 3.2 | 5.9 |
| 14:00 | 64.6 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 126.3 | 0.9 | 9.3 | 171.8 | 0.9 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20:00 | 72.8 | 2.3 | 6.8 | 131.9 | 0.9 | 9.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 181.8 | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | H | 4.27 |
| 07:37 | L | 0.48 |
| 14:06 | H | 4.94 |
| 20:45 | L | 0.94 |
Models have caught up to the buoys. Definitely less size than yesterday but it doesn’t look too bad all things considered.
The PM wind forecast looks worse, so keep that in mind.
Notes: Looks decent mid-day.
Best board: Longboard
Thursday 7/9
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 75 | 2.9 | 7.8 | 35.5 | SW | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| 08:00 | 75 | 2.8 | 7.8 | 34.4 | SW | 9.1 | -1.8 |
| 10:00 | 75 | 2.7 | 7.8 | 33.6 | SSW | 9.9 | -1.9 |
| 12:00 | 75 | 2.8 | 7.7 | 34.1 | SSW | 13 | -0.2 |
| 14:00 | 175 | 3.2 | 7.6 | 22.9 | S | 15 | 1.8 |
| 16:00 | 175 | 3.4 | 7.5 | 24.6 | SSW | 15 | 2.2 |
| 18:00 | 175 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | SSW | 14.6 | 0.8 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 89.8 | 1.5 | 7.6 | 138.8 | 1 | 9.5 | 174.9 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 199.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| 14:00 | 90.5 | 1.4 | 7.3 | 140.4 | 0.9 | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 181.5 | 2.7 | 3.9 |
| 20:00 | 92.8 | 1.3 | 7.5 | 142.8 | 0.8 | 9.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 181.7 | 2.8 | 4.6 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 76.5 | 2 | 7.6 | 134 | 1 | 9 | 174.7 | 1 | 6 | 202.2 | 1.3 | 3 |
| 14:00 | 78.3 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 132.6 | 0.9 | 9.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182.2 | 2.1 | 3.4 |
| 20:00 | 79.6 | 1.7 | 7.4 | 134.3 | 0.9 | 9.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179.2 | 2.7 | 4.2 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 02:28 | H | 4.16 |
| 08:40 | L | 0.44 |
| 15:04 | H | 5.14 |
| 21:52 | L | 0.7 |
Thursday AM could be fun. Watch the AM closely.
Notes: If there’s enough leftover swell this could be pretty good.
Best board: longboard (maybe a groveler swell depending)
Friday 7/10
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 175 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 8.9 | WSW | 7 | 0.3 |
| 08:00 | 175 | 2.4 | 6.8 | 8.2 | WSW | 6.6 | -1.2 |
| 10:00 | 175 | 2.3 | 6.8 | 7.3 | WSW | 5.9 | -2.3 |
| 12:00 | 175 | 2.2 | 6.8 | 6.7 | SW | 6.9 | -1.3 |
| 14:00 | 175 | 2.3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | SSW | 8.3 | 1.1 |
| 16:00 | 175 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 7.8 | SW | 8.1 | 2.4 |
| 18:00 | 175 | 2.7 | 6.6 | 9.5 | WSW | 8 | 1.7 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 03:34 | H | 4.11 |
| 09:43 | L | 0.34 |
| 16:09 | H | 5.35 |
| 22:54 | L | 0.41 |
Small and weak waves. Longboard and low expectations required.
Knee to waist (at best) surf with favorable wind.
Looking Ahead
Possible longboard waves for a while. Nothing particularly great though.
Maybe a swell around 7/14, but very low probability right now. That would mainly be headed towards North Carolina if it occurs per model forecast and it’s currently only the GFS picking it up.
Upper level charts look interesting around 7/18.
Tropics
Tropics are expected to remain quiet for the next two weeks.
All data sourced from NOAA NWPS and GFS Wave
Current list of Surf Hazards Surf Hazards
Why Energy Percentile? Energy Article
Helpful Links
Buoys
NOAA New York Harbor Entrance Buoy