Monmouth County Surf Forecast
Last Update: 09/12/2026 15:00
Link to Free Surf Cams: Beach Cams
Forecast for 9/12 - Thursday 9/17
We could see some waves this week. This isn’t a great setup and, honestly, looks pretty low probability. There’s still some uncertainty in the major atmospheric models, so I wouldn’t pencil this in just yet. The GFS model is definitely the most bullish on this setup, but it’s worth watching.
Saturday 9/12
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | 175 | 1.7 | 5.8 | 1.1 | SE | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| 11:00 | 175 | 1.6 | 5.6 | 0.8 | SE | 9 | 0.9 |
| 13:00 | 145 | 1.9 | 9.2 | 28.2 | SE | 9.1 | -1.4 |
| 15:00 | 155 | 2 | 9.2 | 28.8 | SE | 10 | -2.5 |
| 17:00 | 175 | 2.1 | 9.2 | 21.6 | SE | 10 | -0.9 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 02:28 | L | -0.23 |
| 08:41 | H | 5.55 |
| 14:48 | L | 0.02 |
| 20:55 | H | 5.25 |
Basically flat. The afternoon numbers aren’t going to look like that.
Sunday 9/13
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 145 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | SSE | 10 | 0.2 |
| 08:00 | 145 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 | S | 9.5 | 2.3 |
| 10:00 | 145 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 2.8 | S | 8.7 | 2.6 |
| 12:00 | 145 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | SW | 7.2 | 0.4 |
| 14:00 | 145 | 2.6 | 5 | 3.6 | WNW | 6 | -1.5 |
| 16:00 | 145 | 2.5 | 5 | 3.8 | NNW | 5 | -2.1 |
| 18:00 | 145 | 2.5 | 5 | 3.7 | N | 4.8 | -0.3 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 03:08 | L | -0.08 |
| 09:23 | H | 5.46 |
| 15:32 | L | 0.17 |
| 21:38 | H | 4.94 |
Very weak surf, but a bit more than Saturday.
Monday 9/14
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 145 | 2.4 | 9.1 | 37.5 | NW | 11.6 | -0.7 |
| 08:00 | 145 | 2.5 | 9 | 40.4 | NNW | 14 | 1.3 |
| 10:00 | 5 | 2.9 | 8.9 | 16.9 | NNW | 14.5 | 2.3 |
| 12:00 | 5 | 3 | 8.9 | 17 | NNW | 13.2 | 0.9 |
| 14:00 | 12 | 2.9 | 8.9 | 19.4 | NNW | 12.2 | -0.9 |
| 16:00 | 264.7 | 2.7 | 8.8 | 0.3 | NNW | 11.1 | -1.9 |
| 18:00 | 257.9 | 2.6 | 8.8 | 0.5 | N | 11.1 | -1.1 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 03:45 | L | 0.17 |
| 10:06 | H | 5.28 |
| 16:13 | L | 0.4 |
| 22:23 | H | 4.6 |
North wind swell. Mostly misses our region. I’d take those numbers with a grain of salt.
Tuesday 9/15
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 75 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 13.9 | NE | 12.9 | -1.1 |
| 08:00 | 85 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 16.1 | NE | 11.7 | 0.7 |
| 10:00 | 85 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 15.9 | ENE | 10.6 | 2.1 |
| 12:00 | 92.4 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 20.1 | ENE | 8.6 | 1.6 |
| 14:00 | 95 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 25 | ENE | 7 | -0.1 |
| 16:00 | 95 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 29.8 | E | 6.4 | -1.3 |
| 18:00 | 95 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 34.1 | ESE | 6.4 | -1.2 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 130 | 1 | 8.6 | 176.8 | 0.5 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 72.4 | 2.9 | 5 |
| 14:00 | 93.4 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 178.1 | 0.5 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20:00 | 98.7 | 3 | 7.2 | 180.5 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 131.6 | 0.2 | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 121.2 | 1 | 8.8 | 174.2 | 0.6 | 5.9 | 115.7 | 0.2 | 14.6 | 61.1 | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| 14:00 | 84.4 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 177.5 | 0.4 | 5.6 | 115.5 | 0.2 | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20:00 | 89.4 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 115.2 | 0.2 | 14.3 | 182.2 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 90.3 | 3.4 | 7.1 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 04:21 | L | 0.48 |
| 10:50 | H | 5.06 |
| 16:55 | L | 0.68 |
| 23:10 | H | 4.27 |
This is the first time period to watch. Too much uncertainty to call right now.
Wednesday 9/16
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 95 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 53.1 | SSE | 3 | -1.4 |
| 08:00 | 95 | 3.8 | 7.9 | 53.7 | SSE | 3 | 0.1 |
| 10:00 | 95 | 3.7 | 8 | 53.7 | SSE | 4 | 1.5 |
| 12:00 | 95 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 53.9 | SSE | 4 | 1.5 |
| 14:00 | 95 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 55.5 | SSE | 5 | 0.2 |
| 16:00 | 95 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 57 | SSE | 6.7 | -1 |
| 18:00 | 95 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 56.2 | S | 7.7 | -1.6 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 101 | 2.7 | 7.1 | 131.5 | 0.3 | 13.7 |
| 14:00 | 103.6 | 2.6 | 8 | 131.4 | 0.3 | 13.6 |
| 20:00 | 106.3 | 2.7 | 8.3 | 131.1 | 0.4 | 13.2 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 91 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 115.8 | 0.4 | 13.8 |
| 14:00 | 93.2 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 116.1 | 0.4 | 13.6 |
| 20:00 | 95.7 | 3.3 | 8.1 | 116.1 | 0.4 | 13.2 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 04:56 | L | 0.82 |
| 11:37 | H | 4.82 |
| 17:40 | L | 0.98 |
Thursday 9/17
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 85 | 3 | 7.8 | 39.4 | SW | 5 | -1.6 |
| 08:00 | 85 | 2.9 | 7.7 | 36.4 | SW | 5 | -0.6 |
| 10:00 | 85 | 2.8 | 7.6 | 32.2 | SSW | 5 | 0.8 |
| 12:00 | 85 | 2.6 | 7.4 | 28.5 | SSW | 7 | 1.4 |
| 14:00 | 85 | 2.5 | 7.3 | 25.4 | S | 9 | 0.6 |
| 16:00 | 85 | 2.6 | 7.3 | 26 | S | 10.8 | -0.4 |
| 18:00 | 85 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 27.3 | S | 11.2 | -1.2 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 106.7 | 2.3 | 7.2 | 131 | 0.4 | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14:00 | 108.1 | 2.1 | 6.9 | 130.9 | 0.5 | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20:00 | 101.2 | 1.7 | 6.9 | 130.2 | 0.5 | 12.4 | 149.8 | 1.4 | 5.6 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 95.8 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 116.3 | 0.5 | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14:00 | 93.9 | 2.5 | 7.1 | 146 | 0.6 | 5.9 | 116.2 | 0.5 | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20:00 | 89.3 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 116 | 0.6 | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 1.3 | 5.6 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | H | 3.99 |
| 05:35 | L | 1.14 |
| 12:26 | H | 4.61 |
| 18:33 | L | 1.24 |
Looking Ahead
It’s not looking great for the next few weeks. As always, this time of year is pretty dependent on hurricanes to kick up surf. While we are in the highest statistical likelihood time period for TS development, it looks to remain slow at around a 20% chance.
Otherwise, the jet stream is looking pretty disorganized and the upper level charts aren’t showing any interesting features (at least consistently). Plan on taking advantage of whatever ends up on offer, but swell events are going to be few and far between until this pattern changes.
The Tropics
We’re sitting at >20% for TS development over the next few weeks. The statistical high of the season is coming up and, well, chances are still pretty low. Crazy wind shear from a historic El Nino event.
All data sourced from NOAA NWPS and GFS Wave
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Buoys
NOAA New York Harbor Entrance Buoy