Monmouth County Surf Forecast

wave picture

Last Update: 10/20/2026 14:45

Link to Free Surf Cams: Beach Cams

Forecast for 10/20 - 10/24

Watching Thursday and Saturday for potentially fun surf from the Nor’easter parked off the mid-Atlantic.

Some uncertainty for Thursday’s winds, but as of now, I’m optimistic we see an offshore wind switch. That could be short lived though, with north winds likely to return for Friday.

Lighter sideshore winds for Saturday with potential (but in my opinion unlikely) leftovers.

Thursday 10/22

Time	Wave Direction	Swell Height	Period	Energy Percentile	Wind Direction	Wind Speed	Water Level
06:00	95	9	10.4	97.5	N	18.6	2.4
08:00	95	8.7	10.2	96.9	N	17.7	0.9
10:00	95	8.3	10.1	96.2	N	16.3	-0.3
12:00	95	7.9	10	95.5	NNW	15.1	-0.4
14:00	95	7.6	10	94.7	NNW	13.2	0.8
16:00	95	7.2	9.9	93.7	NNW	10.8	2.1
18:00	85	6.8	9.9	92.3	N	10.5	2.2

Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy

Time	Angle 1	Swell 1	Period 1	WW Angle	Wind Wave	WW Period
08:00	98.2	6.6	10.3	15.1	4	4.8
14:00	82.3	6.5	9.9	0	0	0
20:00	96.2	4.9	9.7	7.6	2.7	4

Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy

Time	Angle 1	Swell 1	Period 1	WW Angle	Wind Wave	WW Period
08:00	83.3	7.9	10.4	18.3	5.9	5.8
14:00	78.8	7.3	10.1	7.6	4.3	5.1
20:00	67.6	7.1	9.8	0	0	0

Time	Tide	Height (ft)
04:46	H	4.38
10:54	L	0.89
17:02	H	4.6
23:13	L	0.4

The combined numbers seem a bit dramatic based on what I’m seeing for the buoy forecast. While I expect the combined values to be lower, we’re still looking at really solid surf. Also note that these numbers are based on the system staying closer to the coast with winds continuing to generate swell for longer than what we’d see if the Euro model is correct.

Everything comes down to the wind forecast. The GFS is holding steady with NNW winds w/ the storm staying closer to the coast while other major atmospheric models showing offshores for the afternoon. Some of the high res models are showing offshores as well, so I’m leaning towards that being the outcome.

I’d plan on watching the local wind forecast very closely. If it looks like north winds, head south an hour and a half or so.

Wave heights are very likely to be head high and above with overhead surf common for the AM session. Wave height increases as you head south and vice versa. It’s possible the most size will be found around Seaside Heights/Lavalette.

Notes: Closeouts will be common. Firing surf; beginners should sit this one out, intermediate surfers should use caution and know their limits.

Best board: Step up or HPSB

Friday 10/23

Time	Wave Direction	Swell Height	Period	Energy Percentile	Wind Direction	Wind Speed	Water Level
06:00	85	7.2	9.6	92.3	NNE	19.6	2.3
08:00	85	7.1	9.6	91.9	NNE	18.7	1.1
10:00	85	6.9	9.6	91.5	NNE	16.7	-0.6
12:00	85	6.6	9.7	90.7	NNE	14.3	-1.5
14:00	85	6.2	9.7	89.6	N	11.4	-0.4
16:00	85	5.8	9.7	88.1	NNE	9.2	1.3
18:00	85	5.4	9.8	86.4	NNE	8.3	2.1

Time	Tide	Height (ft)
05:32	H	4.78
11:41	L	0.55
17:50	H	4.78
23:54	L	0.17

Wind turns back out of the north as high pressure moves in. Unfortunately, poor conditions are likely.

Saturday 10/24

Time	Wave Direction	Swell Height	Period	Energy Percentile	Wind Direction	Wind Speed	Water Level
06:00	85	4.4	9.8	79.6	NNE	8.9	2.3
08:00	85	4.3	9.8	78.8	N	8	1.5
10:00	85	4.1	9.9	78.3	N	7	-0.6
12:00	85	4	10.2	78.4	N	6	-2.2
14:00	85	3.8	10.2	77.4	N	4	-1.6
16:00	85	3.7	10.2	76.1	SE	2.6	0.4
18:00	85	3.6	10.3	75.1	S	3	1.8

Time	Tide	Height (ft)
06:14	H	5.18
12:28	L	0.25
18:34	H	4.91

The GFS model is suggesting some surf will hang around into Saturday. I’m doubting this at the moment. These number look fun but the wind isn’t expected to go offshore for perfect conditions. I’d expect mediocre but worthwhile surf if this holds, but I have my qualms.

Notes: Don’t count on it.

Best board: hpsb or daily driver