Monmouth County Surf Forecast
Last Update: 09/05/2026 12:15
Link to Free Surf Cams: Beach Cams
Summer (and I guess Fall now) Forecast Note
As we get into summer, this page will be updated less. I primarily mean for this page to track swells as they arrive and that’s not something that happens that much this time of year. As surfers, we all know that July-mid August is the slowest time of year for surf. The waves we do see tend to be more similar to trade swell than actual swell events. For this type of setup, wave heights are pretty unimportant and will be too affected by local bathymetry. In general, if the waves are under waist high, I won’t be attaching the tabular data associated.
I’ll still be updating this page with days that are worth a look, but I’ll go ahead and give the NOAA servers a rest until something of interest pops up.
Forecast for 9/5 - 9/14
I’d be lying if I said things were looking better and I wouldn’t be telling the truth if I said it was just disappointing. As we near the statistical peak of Hurricane season, the tropics look exceedingly quiet. Wind shear, Saharan dust, etc. Mix that with the jet stream being disorganized and a ridge over the central U.S. pushing anything out of the Pacific up over Canada and out of our swell window, and we could be in for another long flat spell.
A temporary respite may be due for Thursday 9/10. That said, as with anyone with any sense, it’s headed away from our region and to a break somewhere else. That is to say, it’s a southwest swell and we, in scientific terms, need it to not be.
Originally, models were showing something for Sunday/Monday of this week (9/6), but that low pressure system is staying stubbornly near land and out of our swell window. There are some places on the east coast that will benefit, but poorly located high pressure means onshore winds for NC and FL, where the swell is showing best. FL likely sees the best conditions.
The forecast for the Belmar Pro is equally depressing, so I’ll put that below.
The looking ahead section, spoiler alert, also bad.
In short, yikes.
Saturday 9/5
Bad/Flat
Sunday 9/6
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 85 | 2.3 | 7.7 | 26.6 | ENE | 10 | 0.3 |
| 08:00 | 85 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 6 | NE | 10 | -1.3 |
| 10:00 | 85 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 8.2 | NE | 10.4 | -1.6 |
| 12:00 | 85 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 10.3 | NE | 10 | -0.1 |
| 14:00 | 85 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 11.2 | ENE | 8 | 1.9 |
| 16:00 | 85 | 2.5 | 6 | 12.2 | ENE | 7 | 2.6 |
| 18:00 | 85 | 2.5 | 7.1 | 21.5 | ESE | 5 | 1.5 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 120 | 0.9 | 8 | 182.4 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 2.4 | 5 |
| 14:00 | 117.3 | 1 | 7.6 | 181.5 | 0.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86.7 | 2 | 5.5 |
| 20:00 | 92.9 | 1.8 | 5.2 | 112.3 | 1.1 | 7.5 | 183.8 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 03:14 | H | 4.15 |
| 09:21 | L | 0.73 |
| 15:42 | H | 5.12 |
| 22:27 | L | 0.53 |
The waves are mostly missing us on their way to the southeast, particularly the OBX and Florida. Poor conditions and small surf are expected.
Given the slow weak, it may be worth a look near low tide.
Monday 9/7
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 75 | 2 | 7.8 | 20.6 | NNW | 8 | 0.9 |
| 08:00 | 75 | 2 | 8.4 | 25.2 | N | 8 | -0.8 |
| 10:00 | 75 | 2 | 8.7 | 28.5 | N | 8 | -2.3 |
| 12:00 | 75 | 2 | 8.8 | 29.3 | N | 6 | -1.6 |
| 14:00 | 75 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 27.9 | N | 3 | 0.7 |
| 16:00 | 75 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 25.5 | S | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 18:00 | 75 | 1.7 | 9 | 23.5 | S | 5.2 | 2.2 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 107.2 | 1.4 | 9 | 181.2 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 | 1 | 2.6 |
| 14:00 | 128.2 | 0.8 | 8.6 | 91.2 | 0.7 | 10.9 | 96.9 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20:00 | 134.5 | 0.8 | 8.6 | 93.9 | 0.7 | 10 | 95.3 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 200.7 | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 04:24 | H | 4.36 |
| 10:27 | L | 0.52 |
| 16:51 | H | 5.26 |
| 23:22 | L | 0.24 |
Probably the best overall conditions from what we’re getting. Enough for a beginner on a longboard. Avoid the high tide.
Best board: Longboard
Tuesday 9/8
Flat
Wednesday 9/9
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 185 | 1.9 | 8.7 | 11.4 | WSW | 9 | 2 |
| 08:00 | 184.9 | 1.9 | 8.7 | 10.5 | SW | 8.1 | 1.1 |
| 10:00 | 185 | 1.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | SW | 9 | -1.1 |
| 12:00 | 185 | 1.9 | 8.5 | 10.6 | SSW | 12 | -2.8 |
| 14:00 | 182.4 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 0.2 | S | 16 | -2 |
| 16:00 | 175 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | SSW | 17 | 0.6 |
| 18:00 | 175 | 3.5 | 5 | 4.3 | SSW | 17.1 | 2.5 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 144.6 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 96.8 | 0.6 | 9.7 | 213.6 | 1.8 | 3.8 |
| 14:00 | 139.4 | 0.6 | 8.4 | 92.4 | 0.5 | 9.3 | 196.1 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| 20:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195.5 | 6.2 | 6 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 00:12 | L | -0.02 |
| 06:24 | H | 5.05 |
| 12:21 | L | 0.11 |
| 18:42 | H | 5.57 |
New south(west) swell builds so that it can head to a beach not near us. Shame on it.
Thursday 9/10
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 185 | 4 | 6.6 | 16.3 | SW | 13.7 | 1.4 |
| 08:00 | 185 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 14.5 | WSW | 12.7 | 1.5 |
| 10:00 | 185 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 12.1 | WSW | 12.1 | -0.5 |
| 12:00 | 185 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 9.9 | W | 12.1 | -2.6 |
| 14:00 | 185 | 3 | 6.5 | 8.7 | W | 12 | -3.1 |
| 16:00 | 185 | 3 | 6.5 | 8.2 | W | 12.7 | -0.9 |
| 18:00 | 185 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 7.7 | W | 12.7 | 1.6 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200.2 | 5.4 | 7 |
| 14:00 | 183.3 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 292.7 | 1.5 | 3 |
| 20:00 | 180.9 | 2.6 | 6.6 | 313.5 | 2.4 | 3.6 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 82 | 0.4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200.6 | 5.4 | 6.8 |
| 14:00 | 185.2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 81 | 0.3 | 8.8 | 283.5 | 1.4 | 3 |
| 20:00 | 183.4 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 292.3 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | L | -0.2 |
| 07:12 | H | 5.34 |
| 13:12 | L | 0 |
| 19:28 | H | 5.59 |
Notice the swell angle is out of the SSW (or SW) so the predominant direction of the waves will actually be going away from us, rather than towards us. Not ideal.
Expect smaller surf than the numbers would suggest. This forecast uses the GFS model which is still running a little hot compared to some of the other major atmospheric models. This doesn’t bode well for quality surf.
I’m going to hold off on making any calls about wave size until we see consensus in the models, but I’m expecting mushy waist high surf or so for Thursday AM.
Notes: Not great and a terribly timed high tide on top. Fades quickly and is likely to be smaller than forecast. Low expectations folks.
Best board: Longboard
Belmar Pro
If nothing else, the waves that we’ve been seeing will remain consistent for the event. The ocean is taking an egalitarian approach this year and it looks like our contestants will be faced with the same trash we’ve been dealing with for the past few months.
Looking Ahead
It’s not looking great for the next few weeks. As always, this time of year is pretty dependent on hurricanes to kick up surf. While we are in the highest statistical likelihood time period for TS development, it looks to remain slow at around a 20% chance.
Otherwise, the jet stream is looking pretty disorganized and the upper level charts aren’t showing any interesting features (at least consistently). Plan on taking advantage of whatever ends up on offer, but swell events are going to be few and far between until this pattern changes.
The Tropics
We’re sitting at >20% for TS development over the next few weeks. The statistical high of the season is coming up and, well, chances are still pretty low. Crazy wind shear from a historic El Nino event.
All data sourced from NOAA NWPS and GFS Wave
Current list of Surf Hazards Surf Hazards
Why Energy Percentile? Energy Article
Helpful Links
Buoys
NOAA New York Harbor Entrance Buoy