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Last Update: 7/16/2026 13:00

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Summer Forecast Note

As we get into summer, this page will be updated less. I primarily mean for this page to track swells as they arrive and that’s not something that happens that much this time of year. As surfers, we all know that July-mid August is the slowest time of year for surf. The waves we do see tend to be more similar to trade swell than actual swell events. For this type of setup, wave heights are pretty unimportant and will be too affected by local bathymetry. In general, if the waves are under waist high, I won’t be attaching the tabular data associated.

I’ll still be updating this page with days that are worth a look, but I’ll go ahead and give the NOAA servers a rest until something of interest pops up.

Forecast for 7/15 - 7/20

Flat through Saturday.

Sunday and (maybe) Monday look fun! Watch the middle of next week as well.

See my recent blog post about mid-July here

Wednesday 7/15 - Friday 7/17

Essentially flat to actually flat. There could be enough south background swell to push beginners into waves on a big board, but it’s flat.

Saturday 7/18

New south swell starts to show. Strong south wind through the afternoon and evening hours. Not a day for surf.

Sunday 7/19

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 182.4 3.8 6.5 14.7 WSW 12 -2.6
08:00 185 3.5 6.6 12.4 W 10.9 -1.1
10:00 185 3.4 6.7 12.5 WNW 10.4 0.7
12:00 185 3.4 6.9 14.3 NW 8.5 1.4
14:00 185 3.5 7 16.2 NW 6 0.5
16:00 185 3.5 7.1 17.2 NW 5.9 -1
18:00 185 3.5 7.1 17.6 NW 5.9 -2.1
Time Tide Height (ft)
05:40 L 0.01
12:13 H 4.96
18:02 L 0.68

This is the main day to watch over the weekend. Steep south swell angle means a bit less push than the numbers would indicate. There’s still some uncertainy, but I’d plan on taking a look.

This swell angle should play well with our sandbars. Expect soft right handers in the waist+ range.

Wind is expected to be offshore following the frontal passage. Depending on the strength of the wind, swell may drop faster than model predictions.

Notes: Looks fun!

Best board: Longboard or groveler.

Monday 7/20

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 185 3.1 7.2 14.2 NNE 8 -2
08:00 185 3 7.1 12.8 NNE 7.6 -1.6
10:00 175 3 7 15.2 ENE 6.6 0.1
12:00 175 3 7 14.9 E 6.4 1.5
14:00 175 2.9 7 14.4 ESE 6 1.1
16:00 175 2.8 7 13 SE 7.5 -0.3
18:00 185 2.7 6.9 8.2 SSE 8.6 -1.5
Time Tide Height (ft)
00:22 H 4.62
06:27 L 0.33
13:02 H 4.88
19:00 L 0.93

Swell could drop faster than expected but model outputs are still showing swell for Monday.

If this is accurate, waist high waves or so.

Notes: Check back later

Best board: Longboard or groveler.

Looking Ahead

Early next week looks interesting, but there is still some uncertainty in the models. Originally, a low was expected to track over the great lakes and set up another south swell like we see on Saturday/Sunday. Now, models are showing a potential (weak) tropical storm off the southeast. I still think we should get something early week, but check back later.

Wednesday 7/22

Time Wave Direction Swell Height Period Energy Percentile Wind Direction Wind Speed Water Level
06:00 165 4.5 7.7 46.2 W 12.4 -1.2
08:00 167.6 4.5 8 48.2 W 11.4 -2
Time Tide Height (ft)
02:00 H 4.01
08:08 L 0.85
14:36 H 4.7
21:02 L 1.12

Tropics

Tropics were expected to remain quiet, but now there’s a few regions of interest on the NHS tropical outlook that are worth watching. The tropical wave off Africa isn’t expected to be of that much interest, but the one in the gulf could end up becoming a factor into early next week.

All data sourced from NOAA NWPS and GFS Wave

Current list of Surf Hazards Surf Hazards

Why Energy Percentile? Energy Article

NOAA Atlantic Analysis

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Hurricane Analysis

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