Monmouth County Surf Forecast
Last Update: 09/25/2026 11:00
Link to Free Surf Cams: Beach Cams
Forecast for 9/23 - 9/27
So, crazy enough, the forecast has actually managed to get worse for our area. Pretty much the worst possible storm track for quality surf and pretty close to worst case for coastal impact. All around bad.
Essentially, the storm track trended further west (or near us) which keeps north winds blowing with no offshore wind switch during the window of this swell event. There could be some leftover surf, but in terms of solid surf, we won’t be seeing a cleanup (most likely).
Wind should go offshore for South NJ southeast breaks sometime on Saturday night or Sunday. That’s where you’ll probably see the overall strongest conditions relative to the quality.
Technically, there is still some uncertainty, with the ICON showing a better track for us, but most of the high res models as well as the Euro are showing continued north to northeast winds. I’d have low expectations but plan on checking the wind forecast Saturday night.
Incredibly dissapointing, especially given the absolute trash summer we’ve had. Hopefully better things to come.
Saturday 9/26
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 95 | 16.2 | 11.3 | 99.8 | NNE | 38 | 4.1 |
| 08:00 | 95 | 16.3 | 11.4 | 99.8 | NNE | 37.3 | 4.9 |
| 10:00 | 95 | 16.2 | 11.3 | 99.8 | NNE | 37.7 | 3.2 |
| 12:00 | 95 | 15.7 | 11.2 | 99.8 | NNE | 37.8 | 0.9 |
| 14:00 | 85 | 15 | 11 | 99.7 | NNE | 36.7 | -0 |
| 16:00 | 85 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 99.6 | N | 36.1 | 1.4 |
| 18:00 | 85 | 14.1 | 10.7 | 99.5 | NNE | 35.8 | 3.3 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 01:14 | L | 0.11 |
| 07:26 | H | 5.23 |
| 13:39 | L | 0.25 |
| 19:43 | H | 5.2 |
Crazy numbers. Bad conditions. Look elsewhere if trying to surf.
Sunday 9/27
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 75 | 12.3 | 10 | 98.5 | N | 30.2 | 3.4 |
| 08:00 | 75 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 98.1 | N | 31.2 | 4.7 |
| 10:00 | 75 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 97.3 | N | 30.3 | 3.6 |
| 12:00 | 75 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 96 | N | 28.9 | 1.2 |
| 14:00 | 85 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 94.3 | N | 27.1 | -0.8 |
| 16:00 | 27.7 | 9 | 7.6 | 69.5 | NNE | 25.9 | -0.6 |
| 18:00 | 27.7 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 45.7 | NNE | 25 | 1.2 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 69.8 | 13.6 | 9.4 |
| 14:00 | 116.3 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
| 20:00 | 73.4 | 8 | 6.3 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 51.1 | 13.4 | 9.4 |
| 14:00 | 105.9 | 8.4 | 6.9 |
| 20:00 | 95.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 01:54 | L | 0.01 |
| 08:02 | H | 5.46 |
| 14:25 | L | 0.13 |
| 20:23 | H | 5.13 |
There’s still some uncertainty. I’d check your local winds on Sunday AM, but this is looking pretty terrible once again.
Notes: Better surf elsewhere regardless. Maybe look south of Monmouth County. If this does somehow work out, use caution and know your limits. Solid surf with challenging conditions.
Monday 9/28
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 75 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 63 | N | 19.2 | 1.6 |
| 08:00 | 75 | 6 | 6.8 | 58.3 | N | 17 | 3.5 |
| 10:00 | 75 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 53.3 | N | 16 | 3 |
| 12:00 | 75 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 45.4 | N | 14.9 | 0.6 |
| 14:00 | 75 | 4.7 | 6 | 34.7 | N | 13.9 | -1.4 |
| 16:00 | 75 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 58.3 | N | 11.8 | -1.5 |
| 18:00 | 75 | 4 | 8.7 | 63.4 | N | 10.8 | 0.3 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 188.9 | 0.9 | 7.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66.6 | 7.8 | 7 |
| 14:00 | 159.1 | 2.3 | 6.5 | 130.2 | 0.2 | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56.9 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
| 20:00 | 100.2 | 1.5 | 8.8 | 151.4 | 1.4 | 6 | 132.1 | 0.2 | 14.7 | 39.6 | 4.9 | 5.3 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 151.5 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 115 | 0.2 | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50.3 | 6.8 | 6.9 |
| 14:00 | 81.4 | 3.2 | 7.3 | 83.7 | 1.9 | 8.8 | 147.2 | 1.8 | 6 | 16.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 20:00 | 85.4 | 1.9 | 8.6 | 114.2 | 0.3 | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.7 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 02:33 | L | -0.02 |
| 08:40 | H | 5.59 |
| 15:10 | L | 0.09 |
| 21:05 | H | 4.96 |
Likely leftover surf and probably the first surfable day for us. It’s still somewhat to quite likely that the wind doesn’t work out perfectly, but I mean, it is what it is.
Notes: Watch the wind forecast carefully. Avoid the massive AM high tide.
Tuesday 9/29
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 75 | 3 | 8.6 | 47.6 | NW | 7.7 | 0.4 |
| 08:00 | 75 | 2.9 | 8.5 | 45.1 | WNW | 7.7 | 2.7 |
| 10:00 | 75 | 2.8 | 8.4 | 42.6 | WNW | 6.9 | 3.1 |
| 12:00 | 75 | 2.7 | 8.4 | 39.6 | WNW | 5.1 | 1 |
| 14:00 | 75 | 2.6 | 8.3 | 36.8 | W | 4 | -1.3 |
| 16:00 | 85 | 2.5 | 8.3 | 36.5 | WSW | 4 | -2.1 |
| 18:00 | 85 | 2.4 | 8.3 | 35.1 | SW | 4 | -0.8 |
Prediction for NY Harbor Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 108.6 | 1.8 | 8.5 | 72.8 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 131.4 | 0.3 | 13.9 | 347.7 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| 14:00 | 99 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 130.2 | 0.4 | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20:00 | 102.1 | 1.8 | 8.5 | 169.2 | 0.7 | 6.6 | 130.5 | 0.4 | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction for Barnegat Light Buoy
| Time | Angle 1 | Swell 1 | Period 1 | Angle 2 | Swell 2 | Period 2 | Angle 3 | Swell 3 | Period 3 | WW Angle | Wind Wave | WW Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | 37.1 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 91.5 | 2.1 | 8.6 | 115.6 | 0.4 | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14:00 | 76.7 | 2.7 | 8.5 | 113.7 | 0.5 | 13.8 | 166.4 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20:00 | 83.9 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 172.6 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 115 | 0.6 | 13.7 | 180.9 | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 03:13 | L | 0.03 |
| 09:23 | H | 5.62 |
| 15:55 | L | 0.17 |
| 21:53 | H | 4.74 |
This may end up being the best day of conditions for our region. Most of the swell is long gone by this point, but there could be waves and favorable wind.
Notes: Watch the wind forecast.
Wednesday 9/30
| Time | Wave Direction | Swell Height | Period | Energy Percentile | Wind Direction | Wind Speed | Water Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 85 | 2.5 | 8.9 | 42.3 | W | 4 | -0.8 |
| 08:00 | 85 | 2.5 | 8.9 | 42.7 | W | 4 | 1.6 |
| 10:00 | 85 | 2.5 | 8.9 | 43 | WSW | 4 | 2.8 |
| 12:00 | 85 | 2.5 | 8.9 | 43.3 | SSW | 4 | 1.5 |
| 14:00 | 85 | 2.4 | 9 | 43.5 | S | 5 | -0.6 |
| 16:00 | 85 | 2.5 | 9 | 43.9 | S | 6 | -2.1 |
| 18:00 | 85 | 2.5 | 9 | 44.9 | S | 7.7 | -1.6 |
| Time | Tide | Height (ft) |
|---|---|---|
| 03:54 | L | 0.15 |
| 10:12 | H | 5.54 |
| 16:44 | L | 0.34 |
| 22:48 | H | 4.5 |
More small surf is possible. Too early for specifics.
Looking Ahead
Overall, things are looking way more exciting than what we’ve seen over the past few months. The North Pacific seems to be coming online and that means way more swell events.
The Tropics
Low chance over the next three weeks with potential formation in the Gulf the week of 9/30. Less than 40% chance though.
All data sourced from NOAA NWPS and GFS Wave
Current list of Surf Hazards Surf Hazards
Why Energy Percentile? Energy Article
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Buoys
NOAA New York Harbor Entrance Buoy