Swell Event - 1/7
A fun wind swell for mid-January
NY Harbor Buoy peaked at 4.6@10s
The Setup
Courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com
Similar to a lot of the swells we’ve had this year, we have an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes interacting with high pressure east of the Maritimes. This creates a relatively short fetch of South swell that will impact our region as well as a larger SSW fetch that should have a greater effect on Nova Scotia. The low generating this swell is fairly week, which limits the size of the swell we’ll see in our area, but it looks pretty fun all the same.
A larger area of low pressure would have been better directed, but I’ll hold my complaints given the year we’ve had.
The Waves
Swell is expected to peak sometime early afternoon (as of 1/6) and I’d expect buoy numbers in the 4ft@9s range give or take. Breaking waves should be roughly stomach high on the sets during the peak of the swell with larger sets south for the best sandbars and Ocean County. Model numbers came in a bit lower as of 8am 1/7. Originally it was looking like we’d see chest high surf, but I think stomach high is pretty likely at this point. But, the proof is in the buoy as no one says.
Wind is expected to be offshore (WNW) all day with speeds greater than desired at around 14kts sustained. We should have plenty of swell, so wind won’t hold us back too much, but it’d be better if it were lighter given the steep swell angle. Expect the occasional blind takeoff and a bit of trouble getting into waves if you aren’t used to days like this.
Timing is going to be critical given the size of the tide swing at a delta of 5ft. Low tide is around 4pm and is -0.5 ft. That will be too drained for most breaks to handle and I’d expect poor shape for the late afternoon. High tide is at 10am and is pretty high at 4.6ft which will swamp most breaks.
The best window given the peaking swell and mid-tide looks to be around 1-2pm. For those of you looking to surf during your lunch hour, there should be enough swell around and the tide will have gone out enough for decent conditions.
I’d plan on bringing a groveler and a daily driver if you have the ability to. The waves will be fairly steep for the size given the strong offshore wind. Depending on how the sand is handling the swell, it may be too soft for a more performancy board and a groveler will help with that.
Looking Ahead
It’s looking likely that we’ll see another swell come in sometime over the weekend. Models are still back and forth on the timing with Monday, 1/12, potentially being the best day. I’ll continue to update as we get closer, but Sunday/Monday is looking like the time period to keep an eye on.
After that, it’s possible wee see back-to-back swells late week, though nothing firing is expected at this time. That said, long range models were looking pretty poor after this week, so I’d take advantage of whatever comes through.