Back-to-Back Swells for the Week of 12/19
Finally
Last updated 12/20 at 13:30
Friday, 12/19, and Saturday morning are looking potentially very fun with firing surf Friday.
The Setup
Courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com
We have a particularly large area of low pressure over the Great Lakes that will interact with an area of High pressure in the north-cental Atlantic late Thursday night that will create a decent fetch of south swell for our region. Recent runs are showing an area of gale force winds off the Southeast that will help push the swell numbers up if it comes to pass. All in all, we’re looking at a short-mid period swell event.
Winds are expected to switch offshore as that low pressure system continues to move east. Expect strong, not far from gale, westerly winds that should set up hollow but not particularly user friendly waves.
The Waves
Swell heights are expected to peak late AM and should be well overhead. There will be plenty of waves all day with overhead surf by sunset. Swell angle is favorable for Monmouth County and should set up some fun right handers.
We have a mid-day low tide setting up a nice window in the late afternoon before sunset. Winds are expected to be strong out of the south early before switching offshore mid-day. Expect offshores to be around 30kts though. We haven’t had blind takeoffs in a while, but they will be the norm on Friday.
Beginners and novice surfers should plan on watching from the beach. Expect strong currents and heavy, hollow waves.
Surf will get cleaner as the day goes on, with improving conditions through last light.
I’d throw a HPSB and/or a barrel board in the truck.
As of 12/19, it seems like this is going to be the main day of surf for most surfers. Friday is too challenging/dangerous for most (that probably means you). Luckily, surf is way more approachable, if not a little less size than one would hope for. Waves should be chest high at first light, but high tide is going to slow down the vast majority of spots until at least 8am if not later.
Personally, I’d keep an eye on the cams and go as soon as the waves start to break. That’ll probably be around 8:30-9:00. Models are suggesting wave heights in the 3ft@10s range, which would put surf at around waist high with occasional chest high sets. Wind is offshore, but moderately strong at around 15kts. Not enough for blind takeoffs, but enough to hold the surf up a little. A daily driver type board or a performance groveler is probably the call. Wide nosed boards will struggle to get into waves a bit, but YMMV.
Waves fade through the morning and are around waist high by 1pm. Beginners and novice surfers looking to get some fun longboard waves should check around that time, but make sure to watch the wind forecast. Wind should switch out of the southwest sometime around 2pm. That said, it’s not enough to ruin the surf and it won’t be too bad in Monmouth County. Ocean County will fare a bit worse, but again, not too bad.
Sunday 12/21
We’re looking at another setup that’s similar to what we’ve been seeing with a steep angled south-southwest angled swell from an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes. This area of low pressure is interacting with an area of high pressure east of the Maritimes which helps aim the swell a little bit better towards our region than some of the past swell events we’ve had.
That said, this will be a short-lived and short period swell. It should be pretty fun on a longboard or (potentially) a small wave board. The best window is currently looking to be late AM after the 7am high tide.
Current wind numbers are a little higher than I’d like to see given the short period swell, but at least it’ll be clean.