An approachable wind swell event

The Setup

Weather Map

Coutesy of tropicaltidbits.com

We have a relatively weak coastal low exiting off southern North Carolina before moving NNE up the coast. This system interacts with an area of high pressure above the Canadian Maritimes setting up short period stomach high surf.

This is a fairly ideal setup for our region as we want the northeast part of a low pressure system’s wind field and the south-west portion of a high pressure system’s wind field to interact and generate SE angled swell. The strength of the low pressure system is the limiting factor here in terms of wave height.

The Waves

The following contour plots show swell height and period. At some point I need to discuss how to read swell direction off of these, but in general, they are perpendicular to the direction of the bands. In this case, the swell is southeast. All times are in UTC, so +5:00 EST.

Swell for Tomorrow at 8:00 AM

December third AM

As we can see, LBI looks to get the most size and will have cleaner conditions than Monmouth county given the NW wind. For LBI, I’d expect surf heights to be in the chest high range on average with some larger sets here and there. Monmouth county is about a foot smaller in the 3-4ft range. I’d expect wave heights to be in the stomach-chest high range.

Swell for Tomorrow at 2:00 PM

December third PM

Swell heights drop through the day with LBI still in the 3-4ft range and Monmouth around 3ft. Period is consistent at 8-9 seconds all day.

Swell for Thursday at 10:00 AM

December fourth AM

Note the change in swell direction which is now more ESE. Surf height remains largest for LBI at close to 3ft and drops to around 2ft for southern Monmouth County. Average period is in the 9 second range for LBI and Monmouth County. Surf will be a bit walled in LBI given the swell direction. Wind is moderately strong offshore for most of New Jersey.

Surf fades to mostly flat by afternoon.

The Upside

Although the swell heights have trended down through the week, it’s the best we’ve seen since 11/8 and is a respite from the storm track pattern that existed for the last several weeks of November (read about that here). This should be a fun swell for most surfers and offers approachable, albeit cold, waves with a favorable angle for our sandbars.

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come with more low pressure systems tracking south into our swell window rather than staying north of the Great Lakes and sending swell southwest. Looking ahead, There is a large trough expected around 12/11 but no blocking high pressure over the Maritimes for the majority of the GFS runs. There’s potential, but it’s not a classically positive setup. Looking out further, around 12/16, there’s a much better looking setup with a deep, negatively tilted trough, and a ridge setting up over the Canadian Maritimes. It’s way too far out, but there’s some reasons to be optimistic.