A note on Monday’s overperformance and what it means for surf forecasting in general

Monday 11/10

Monday 11/10 significantly overperformed model outputs for swell. I’ve been seeing 3-4ft @ 7s from every model I look at. When that occurs, it’s typically pretty accurate. Actual buoy readings for Monday afternoon were closer to 5ft@8s or one and a half feet greater than model output. That’s significant.

I want to take the chance to talk big picture about surf forecasting and accuracy in general. At the end of the day, the accuracy of any surf forecast can only be as good as the information they’re based on. It’s not uncommon to have differences in model outputs and having to use intuition and experience to know which to weight higher or lower, but when every model is suggesting a similar outcome, and it checks out with experience, you go with it.

Even when the models are correct, there’s going to be local variability with sand-bottomed beach break due to bar quality as well as the little changes in angle that naturally occur between the sandbar and the beach. That’s not what happened on Monday. Though it was certainly better at certain spots.

Anyone getting into surf forecasting is doing so to put out accurate forecasts, but a day like Monday really surprised. I’ve written before about how the main goal of predicting waves comes down to a boolean “I think it’s enough that you should take a look”. Personally, I was expecting waist-stomach surf with good shape. I’ll certainly take chest-shoulder high surf with good shape, but I’m not going to lie, I’m a little annoyed I didn’t call it.

Looking Ahead

Unfortunately, it’s looking like we’re going to be stuck in a pattern of offshore flow with nothing entering our swell window for the time being. I was somewhat optimistic for Wednesday 11/12 but it’s looking like that isn’t going to be able to wrap in. Consider a trip to southern NJ if you want to get some surf. Winds will be moderately strong offshore.

A similar situation plays out on 11/16 as an area of low pressure tracks further north than models were suggesting earlier last week. This limits swell production in our swell window and is unlikely to set up surf for early week. It’s possible there could be something rideable on the 16th, but because of the proximity to that low pressure system, we’re getting really strong (~25kts) offshores which will limit surfability given the weak swell.

Things are looking up for later in the month, but it’s too soon to get into that.