Starting to look that way

The Setup

20260718_ecmwf_wind

We have a fairly modest low that is expected to move east across the Great Lakes on Saturday. This will interact with high pressure over the western Atlantic and create a SW-SSW wind fetch and corresponding swell. Note that most of this is headed northeast rather than north, but some swell should wrap in to our area. The red arrows shows the main direction of swell and the “H” shows where that high pressure is (the center is east of the image).

While we’d rather see a stronger south fetch of wind (or southeast), for July, this is about as good as things can get. At least until next week, but more on that later.

The Waves

20260719_waves

We’ll probably see a few days of surfable waves from this system. Sunday is doable all day except for right around high tide. Avoid that and you should find most breaks working with the swell angle.

Wind is expected to be offshore or at least side-offshore all day, with lighter winds in the afternoon. Expect clean conditions for almost the entirety of the coastline of NJ.

While models are showing Monday still having some energy in the water, I have my doubts. Personally, I’d plan on making the most of Sunday and bring a big board for Monday AM.

Looking Ahead

While there is some disagreements in the models, the predominant solution has been for another low to follow a similar path as the one we are watching for this weekend. High pressure remains over the western Atlantic and is better positioned to create a south swell.

So far, the ICON model has been the outlier showing tropical storm development out of the gulf that would cross over teh panhandle region and be well situated for a south swell. While that would probably be a stronger swell event, the odds of development remain low.

20260722_10

While it’s much too soon for specifics, I have been seeing a lot of positive model runs for this time period. The 6:30am low tide is pretty annoying given the time of year, but I’d expect some of the best surf we’ve seen in a while if this comes to pass.

Looking Further Ahead

The end of the month could offer something in the way of waves, but I wouldn’t say the charts look particularly great. There is a lot of variation between major models. From what I’ve been seeing, I’d expect maybe one swell event after early next week at best.

Given that we’re getting deeper into summer, tropical storms can change things in a hurry. That said, with the strength of the wind shear we’re getting from El Nino conditions as well as the amount of dust inhibiting formation from tropical waves off Africa, I feel pretty confident saying that the end of July is likely to be pretty slow. Take advantage of any surf we get in the next 7 days.