Updated 12/09 09:30

The Set Up

I’m seeing a very similar setup to what we saw last month, with a fairly strong low pressure system moving east over the Great Lakes and an area of high pressure over the central Atlantic. See below:

20251210 Wind Map

Courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

As you can see, the wind field is primarily from the southwest and therefore the swell will be too. This is due to the southeast portion of our low pressure system interacting with the west/northwest portion of our high pressure system. We will see some steep angled south windswell as it wraps into our region. Swell heights are period for the afternoon are shown below:

The Waves

20251210 Swell Heights

20251210 Swell Period

20251210 Gif

Most of the surfable swell will be near dark with swell peaking overnight. This is 4pm on 12/10. Monmouth should expect swell heights in the 6-8ft range and period to be around 8 seconds or so. Given that this is a steep angled south swell, our sandbars should fair pretty well, but I’d expect waves to be on the peaky side without too much room to run given the period. Wave heights are likely to be around shoulder high on average with some bigger sets.

Although the surf will be pretty large, I wouldn’t expect a ton of push. The period is still pretty short and the swell has to wrap in given the swell angle. It’ll be soft relative to the size. Newer surfers should know their limits (haven’t had to say that in a while!), but it should still be approachable for experienced-but-not-pro folks. Note that this is all assuming that the wind switches SW and you have some amount of south wind protection.

The wind forecast is currently showing strong SSW winds (18kts+ w/ stronger gusts) for the afternoon, switching to more SW after sunset. South wind protection will be necessary if you’re looking to get a few. I’d plan on surfing right before sunset/last light to make the most of it. High tide is mid-day, so that sets up a nice window late day on the dropping tide.

Thursday 12/11

This is the best day of the week. Waves will be on the smaller side, but we have offshore wind and a favorable swell angle. Swell height and period for 6am are shown below:

20251211 Swell Heights

20251211 Period

Swell heights for 6am are still in the 3-5 foot range, but I’d expect Monmouth County to see the lower end of that range. Period should be around 8-9 seconds for our south angled wind swell. Surf heights will most likely be around waist-stomach high on average (largest early) but I’d expect pretty soft surf, especially given the strong offshore winds (20kts+ or so).

Waves will be mushy overall and I’d plan on bringing a log or, at most, a groveler. Light boards may struggle a bit given the amount of wind and lack of swell/lack of steepness to the swell. That said, it’s still looking like a fun morning of waves.

Most of the swell will be gone by early afternoon. Swell height and period for 2pm are shown below:

20251211_2pm Swell Heights

20251211_2pm Period

Friday 12/12

We had a few good model runs, but it’s looking like we’re not going to see anything on Friday.

Looking Ahead

There’s not much on the forecast after Thursday. Waves are flat going into the weekend as high pressure moves in on Saturday. I was originally optimistic about 12/15 or so, but models are showing nothing from that system. Personally, I think we could see a little swell on Sunday 12/14, but I don’t have anything to back that up. Otherwise, watch late next week.