The pattern continues…

Forecast Image

Courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com (red arrows are mine)

Why We’re Not Seeing Surf

This is pretty much the setup we’ve been seeing for the past month. We’ve had several low pressure systems move through (some fairly strong ones as well), but we’re not getting waves. The main issue is the track that these low pressure systems are taking.

First, let’s look at the image above. We have an area of high pressure directly west of us over the Atlantic ocean and an area of low pressure a little west of the Great Lakes. When areas of low pressure and high pressure interact, you get wind. If you look at the pressure lines (isobars), where they are tightly packed together means strong winds, and where they are further apart, that means lighter wind.

In the northern hemisphere, low pressure systems spin counterclockwise and high pressure systems spin clockwise. Looking at the red arrows on the chart, you can see that there is an interaction between the low pressure system and high pressure system, particularly the southwest portion of the low, and the northwest portion of the high.The arrow pointing northeast shows the direction of wind due to that interaction and eventually the direction of swell. Unfortunately, New Jersey is not northeast of those systems, which is very much the problem.

For the most part, we want low pressure systems to lift up the coast from the southeast (Nor’easters) or exit off North Carolina. Basically, those setups are the most likely to give us surf in our swell window. That hasn’t happened this month. Instead, low pressure systems are hugging the Canadian border or passing just north of us, which has been setting up surf in the 190 degree range and mostly going anywhere but our beaches. We’ve had some swell wrap in, but these systems aren’t generating large areas of fetch, so it’s just short period wind swell. Short period swell doesn’t wrap in like a longer period swell would.

That isn’t to say systems like this can’t generate swell, just that they haven’t been, for the most part.

Hope for the Future

Models are suggesting we could see a couple of swell events through mid-Decemember that could offer some decent waves. The first is around 12/3 and the second is around 12/9. While 12/9 is out a fair way, 12/3 is close enough to say that there is a real chance of swell.

Is it a sign of what’s to come for the rest of winter? Too soon to say, but at least we’re seeing a chance of things going our way after a pretty flat month of surf.