October 21, 2025 — Monmouth County

Monday Recap: Finally, a South Swell

On Monday (10/20), we scored our first legitimate South swell in a while, and it was one of the better days of the fall season for Monmouth County. Hopefully y’all got a few.

The setup was pretty classic: a low-pressure system just northwest of our region interacting with high pressure parked over the Atlantic near Georgia. That combo created a medium-fetch, steep-angle South swell that was barely inside our swell window, but just enough to wrap in.

Buoy Readings:

  • Primary swell: ~7’ @ 7s from the S
  • Secondary swell: ~2’ @ 10s from the E
  • Wind: Strong offshore, which helped shape but also bled some energy due to the short period

Overall, it was a really fun short-period wind swell with clean shape, especially for how little South swell we’ve had this year.

Sandbars: Still a Big Question Mark

The real story heading into winter is the sand.

Right now, most Monmouth County breaks and even spots in northern Ocean County like Bay Head, are holding too much sand. The result of which has been shorebreak setups, frequent closeouts, and poor shape, especially on easterly swells.

Even Monday’s fun surf couldn’t hide the fact that we’re not seeing the quality bars we’ve had in recent years. Ideally, we’d see waves connect from the jetty to the inside. That’s just not happening yet. Personally, I was mostly finding waves between jetties.

What’s Missing:

  • South swell: We’ve had almost none this season
  • South currents: Needed to move sand and reshape bars
  • Swell tracks: Most tropical systems have recurved northeast while high pressure has been over land, leading to East swells.

We’re entering the time of year when SE swell becomes more common. That’s great, as it breaks better and offers more opportunity for turns. With luck, those currents will start pulling excess sand out of the lineup.

Looking Ahead: Next Swell Around 10/28

Today is October 21, and we’re heading into a lull. The next swell looks likely around October 28, and I’m cautiously optimistic.

Forecast Highlights:

  • Swell direction: SE (~140°)
  • Period: Mid-period (~11s period)
  • Wind: TBD; this will be the key factor and depends on how an area of low pressure moves through our region.
  • Sandbar compatibility: Direction should work for some/most spots, assuming the wind cooperates

Final Thought

The sandbars still need work. With more SE swell and stronger currents, we might start seeing better shape soon. Fingers crossed for a clean run into early winter.