A candid look at what’s working, what’s not, and why it’s not just you.

Where’s the Swell?

We’re at the peak of hurricane season and once again… where is it?

Yes, we’re about to get another East or ESE swell from a hurricane that’ll stay offshore. That’s good news—waves without damage. I’m excited. But this marks the second year in a row where an “above average” season has turned out below average in terms of surfable swell.

We were supposed to be in a La Niña ENSO pattern, and that hasn’t materialized. That’s likely throwing off some of the big-picture forecasting from the usual agencies.

Hurricane Swells: Overrated?

Just between us—I think hurricane swells are overrated.

  • Swell period: Often too long for our sandbars (unless you’re at a top spot)
  • Crowds: Always packed
  • Direction: Needs to be perfect or it’s a bust

I’ll take swell over no swell any day, but let’s be honest: winter swells are where it’s actually at.

The Missing South Swell

Summer’s never great, but it’s weird to go four months without a single solid S swell. This is the time of year when you expect bigger pulses from the south and smaller ones from the east. New Jersey—especially Monmouth County—thrives on south swell. And we’ve had none.

Wind Woes

Even when we’ve had swell, the wind’s been a mess. Onshore every time. The week of 9/14 had solid numbers—good height, good period—but it was yet another E swell. Normally we get those in winter from Nor’easters. Getting them all summer? Odd.

Last year was the opposite—almost every decent swell came from the south, even in winter and spring. Again, unusual.

Hurricane Gabrielle: TBD

Gabrielle hasn’t formed yet, but early models show another easterly swell. That means:

  • Bar hunting: You’ll need to find spots that aren’t closing out
  • Wind windows: Small and inconsistent
  • Forecasted winds: Mostly light onshore or southerly—not ideal, but better than NE

There’s some southerly wind protection in our area, which helps. But it’d be nice to see quality surf up and down the beach—not just at marquee spots.

Why South Swells Are Rare This Hurricane Season

To get a true S swell from a hurricane, it usually needs to track into the Gulf or Florida. That raises landfall risk, and obviously nobody wants that. But it’s part of why we’re stuck with these easterly setups. Interestingly, we haven’t seen much tropical storm activity in the gulf. Too early to say historically low activity, but it’ll be worth looking at after the season ends.

Sandbars: What’s Going On?

We’ve had swell. We’ve had energy. But the bars haven’t been working.

  • Shape: Flat spots right after takeoff—even on shoulder-high days
  • Cause: Possibly poor swell direction + sandbar misalignment
  • Replenishment: Big beach projects + storm current = sand everywhere
  • Result: Closeouts or waves that just don’t break right

Some spots are working, sure. But the average bar? Not good right now.

Forecasting Frustrations

Wind forecasting has been brutal this year. Rapid changes—even the night before a swell event.

  • Forecast says 15 knots NE
  • Reality: 5 knots offshore the next morning

That’s a huge swing. It’s made forecasting nearly impossible. I used to plan sessions 3–4 days out. Now? I’m checking wind in real time and hoping for the best.

Looking Ahead

Fall and early winter should pick up. I’m optimistic.

Final Thought

If you’ve been frustrated, you’re not alone. The swell’s been inconsistent, the wind’s been off, the bars aren’t cooperating, and the forecasts are all over the place.

So yeah—it’s not just you.