The Nature of Surf Forecasting: Why I Built My Own

Let’s be real—most surf forecasting websites are built on the same bones. Whether it’s Surfline, Magicseaweed (RIP), or your buddy’s DIY blog, the core workflow is pretty much identical.

The Tech Stack Behind the Forecast

Here’s how it usually goes:

  • Pull data from NOAA, especially the GFS wave model
  • Choose a lat/lon grid point to extract swell data
  • Visualize the raw output or derive features like:
    • Wave face height
    • Wind direction and speed
    • Swell angle and period
  • Grab tide data (also NOAA) and layer it into the graphics

That’s the backbone of nearly every surf forecast site out there. What separates one from another isn’t the data—it’s how you interpret it.

Why Regional Forecasting Matters

Big platforms like Surfline offer some spot-specific write-ups, but let’s be honest: they’re often vague, outdated, or just plain generic. What you don’t get is true local knowledge.

That’s where regional forecasting shines. I built my site because:

  • I wanted to focus on the breaks I actually surf
  • I didn’t want to waste time covering spots I’ll never paddle out to
  • I wanted to pick the best days for myself—and help a few friends along the way

“Won’t That Just Crowd the Lineup?”

Fair question. I’ve thought about it too.

But here’s the thing:

  • Most people won’t stumble onto a small, regional site unless they’re already in the know
  • It saves me from texting five different people every time the swell looks promising
  • It’s fun. I like writing forecasts, building visuals, and sharing insights I wish I’d had years ago

Sure, it gets a little nerdy sometimes. But surf forecasting is part science, part art—and I enjoy both sides of it.

Why Not Just Use NOAA Directly?

You absolutely can. I do too.

But here’s what a curated forecast adds:

  • Local nuance—how a 3.5@9s swell actually plays out on our sandbars
  • Convenience—one place to check instead of bouncing between NOAA charts, wind models, and tide tables
  • Sanity check—compare your read with mine, especially if you’re still dialing in your own forecasting chops

Why I Skip “Current Conditions”

I don’t run cams. I don’t do live updates. And here’s why:

  • Sandbars shift. Tides change. Wind bends. You can’t model that in real time without boots on the ground.
  • I surf a lot, and I’m willing to drive. But even then, I check multiple spots almost every session.
  • You can’t out-surf the wave. If the wave isn’t good, your performance won’t be either.

Real-World Example

One morning I hit Sea Girt. It was thigh-high and choppy—barely surfable. Drove up to Spring Lake and found chest-high peaks. Still not epic, but way better.

Same swell. Same tide. Different sandbar.

I’ve seen it in the Outer Banks too—head-high barrels at one access, waist-high mush 200 yards down the beach.

That’s why I don’t obsess over cams or live reports. Instead, I focus on:

  • Forecasting potential
  • Identifying “check-the-beach” days
  • Highlighting wind and swell windows that could light up somewhere

The Philosophy Behind My Forecasts

At the end of the day, here’s how I approach it:

  • If the wind’s good and there’s swell in the water, something should be working
  • Don’t trust one spot or one buoy—go look
  • Use the forecast as a guide, not gospel

Forecasting is about stacking the odds in your favor. It’s not about guaranteeing perfect surf—it’s about knowing when it’s worth checking.

And that’s what I try to deliver.